Until the transcontinental railroad, there were no time zones. Each village kept its own time, based on its own steeple and its own high noon. And why not? There was no good reason to go through the pain of coordinating the clocks.

Factory work forced us all to know exactly what time it was. The shift couldn't start until the foreman and the workers were ready to go. Synchronicity paid big dividends, so we embraced it.

This notion of lockstep started to inform all elements of our culture. Not just what time rush hour was (what a bizarre concept) but how old you should be to go to college and to get a job and to get married and to have kids and to retire.

The web is asynchronous. Time frames have accelerated (started/funded/built/sold!) at the same time they have slowed down. It's up to you to decide how long your time horizon is--perhaps you're willing to invest five years into building a solid reputation on a web platform. The decision to work at a different rate than others can be a significant competitive advantage.

Celebrate New Year's when you want to, and as often as you choose. They're your resolutions, not ours.

Writing in a public forum is a challenge for me. I feel the need to cover everything in disclaimers (I do not always agree with Seth Godin's posts). I also feel the need to explain why I am doing what I am doing (because this post by Seth Godin is not only interesting from an informational perspective but also because he has summed up in a few words myriad thoughts that I have had but been unable to tie together into a cohesive statement). Factor in the fact that one should not post publicly unless one has something to say and you will see few posts from me. Beginning today I am comfortable with that.

You Cannot Die

Have you ever thought about how difficult it is to actually hurt yourself?

I don’t mean a paper cut. I mean something that’s disgusting to look at, where you’re at risk for death. What would it take?

In this society, it’s very difficult. We are safe. And even if we are hurt, plastic surgery, free medical care (sorry, Americans), and medicine means we’ll recover instead of dying of an infection.

The only injuries we’re accustomed to in today’s society are not acute injuries, but chronic injuries caused by things like food, stress, etc.

Any world where cancer is a serious risk is extremely safe, because it means many people are living for as long as it takes to get cancer.

We’re in an eternal cradle. It’s very difficult to die, or to be seriously injured.

Think of the way we treat children, versus how they were treated 20 years ago. We have all been eternally infantilized.

I thought about this the other week as I spent time in Thailand with Julie Angel, one of the top parkour documentarians in the world. Watch her videos and ask yourself whether anyone would do them in a world where they were in serious danger of dying from an injury. Stunt men are willing to do their jobs because being on fire is now reasonably safe.

Think about that.

Instead, our cultural environment creates other risks. Being broke, dying alone, not fulfilling your potential– these exist because we are no longer concerned with being devoured by predators or afraid of starving. But these are risks that are significantly less severe, and much easy to recover from.

It’s possible to seriously hurt yourself, but only if you’re alone– when people can’t come to your rescue, or won’t, because you fulfill a social role that doesn’t get help. (Drunk Japanese businessmen and the homeless, for example.)

This culture creates media like Fight Club, which is revered because people are looking for authenticity and real risk which they can’t get inside of the system. So, they go looking outside of it.

What happens in a world where you cannot die?

You risk more, because consequences are diminished.

Peaks stay high, but valleys are reduced… for those who use the valleys to their advantage.

If you think this isn’t relevant to you, because physical culture isn’t a part of your life, you’re wrong.

In this world, you cannot die in any environment.

You cannot die socially because the social fabric smoothes over most mistakes with time.

You cannot die on the web because failure is cheap and the worst that happens is obscurity.

We are in a world where the chance of permanent, uncorrectable failure has dropped to zero.

It’s time you started living accordingly.

We think failure is forever. Wrong.

We think embarrassment can’t be recovered from.

We think losing is the end of the world.

Reprogram yourself.

You can cover up a bad tattoo. You can heal a broken bone. You can get into another relationship. You can move to a new city.

Nothing is forever.

You can recover from anything. No mistake is forever and most are easier to recover from than you think they are.

Do this now.

Below, write down the first act you will take as your new self– the one that cannot die and for which failure is insignificant.

Have it be something you are seriously afraid of. Something that makes your heart beat fast.

Then, after you’ve written it down, do it.

DON’T COME BACK HERE UNTIL YOU’VE LIVED.

†

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Hi, I’m Julien Smith.

I help people lead more productive, happier lives—one day at a time. This is my blog. If you like it, please

Why facebook will be a 7 trillion dollar company

January 10, 2011 – 11:48 pm

Because a loaf of bread will cost $389.

You see, everything is relative.  Except the truth…which is where the hippies go wrong.

I understand that you see things as they currently are.  Even worse, you predict the future according to the paradigm that currently is.  That’s why you clicked on my stupid title to this post.  Well, that and some lottery dream of starting an application that tricks itself into becoming a business of a generation.

It’s why when some loon with a pistol in Arizona plays Billy the kid, it’s the fault of a lady from Alaska.

Of course some of you are regular andyswan.com readers.  Also known as winners.  The previous statements don’t apply to you.  You view the world through a lens that allows for both economic/technological progression as well as the reason and logic restricted to the reality of defined truth.

And what is that truth?  What is that logic?

The truth is, 97% of VC funded companies in the tech space right now are nothing more than applications.   It’s so bad, I’m in serious discussions to start a fund that backs nothing but copycats.

The logic is….this ends well.  You see, markets always end well.  There are painful periods, of course.  Secretaries that think they had a million bucks in stock and then go on Oprah to cry when they figure out they merely made $250k in 4 years with the firm.

But that’s short term fail thinking.  In the long term, even when supposed bubbles burst, winners win.  Look at Amazon.  Look at Google.  Look at Priceline, Netflix, Apple, etc.   Value and wealth created through excellence.   It ends well for the winners, bad for the losers.   The same could be said for a night of bourbon.

So, I challenge you to think beyond the bubble.  Build your BUSINESS on revenues.  Challenge yourself to build solutions that the customer is willing to pay for…..rather than the application that joe trust-fund from the valley is willing to invest in.

You WILL benefit if you do so.

Embrace the burst.

Win.

My son recently told me that Tumblr had recently fallen into the realm of places where people with nothing to say re-post the thoughts of other people with nothing to say. I am proud to say that even though I might not have much to say I can certainly post thoughts of people who do... have a lot to say.

I am sorry, but I do not believe it is relevant to ask how educated they are. Using sanitation workers as an example, I would put it this way.

If you do not have enough sanitation workers because you cannot fill job openings at the current level of pay, then those government workers are underpaid.

On the other hand, if you do not have enough sanitation workers because your budget is busted by the ones you have, then those government workers are overpaid.

Basic microeconomics.

Rich Karlgaard of Forbes likes to continually beat the drum (and is mostly correct, I think) that our saving grace is innovation. Pointing repeatedly to the fact that FedEx, Microsoft and other hugely innovative and successful companies grew out of the recessionary 1970's. Taking that thought and mixing it with Rubel's observation regarding the dearth of innovation occurring in the world today does this mean that prosperity is not in the immediate future or is this simply an indication of a bottom in the innovation market? Is the next game changing technology waiting to be exposed or is there a flat period forthcoming where the current technology is absorbed completely into our lives?

My emotions and the economists I read tell me it is the latter. Hopefully that in itself is a sign of the market bottom.

Click the picture...  I can't add anything to this...  Other than maybe that it pays to be nice to people.

Tweetsgiving 2008

Tweetsgiving 2008

Tweetsgiving 2008

Tweetsgiving 2008

Tweetsgiving 2008

Still Not Stimulating

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October 2, 2009 Posted by John at 12:02 PM

Unemployment rose to 9.8% in September. Innocent Bystanders has been tracking the unemployment rate against the Obama administration's projections. In order to persuade Congress to pass the "stimulus" bill, the administration predicted what unemployment would be with and without the alleged impact of the stimulus. The reality has turned out to be far worse; I think it is safe to say that the stimulus bill has been a failure:

I know its lame to post something from Posterous to Posterous, but where else would I be able to find it?